{"id":26,"slug":"2026-07-30-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-07-30","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-07-30","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 49 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 194 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 64 bps, 95th pct 194 bps (11 symbols, 3630 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 60 bps, 95th pct 176 bps (11 symbols, 5291 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 58 bps, 95th pct 121 bps (11 symbols, 6347 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 38 bps, 95th pct 105 bps (11 symbols, 2640 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 27 bps, 95th pct 49 bps (11 symbols, 4290 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSFTx (550 bps during afterhours).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":22198,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":11,"ticks":3630,"typical_p95_bps":193.9,"typical_median_bps":64.4,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":382.3,"median_bps":109.4}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":11,"ticks":5291,"typical_p95_bps":175.9,"typical_median_bps":59.6,"widest":{"symbol":"MSFTx","n":481,"p95_bps":505.6,"median_bps":67.6}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":11,"ticks":6347,"typical_p95_bps":121.3,"typical_median_bps":57.6,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":577,"p95_bps":312.1,"median_bps":171.3}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":11,"ticks":2640,"typical_p95_bps":104.9,"typical_median_bps":38.1,"widest":{"symbol":"MSFTx","n":240,"p95_bps":549.8749999999999,"median_bps":60}},{"session":"open","symbols":11,"ticks":4290,"typical_p95_bps":49.46499999999999,"typical_median_bps":26.5,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":90.76499999999999,"median_bps":46.8}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-07-30:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 194 bps (11 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 176 bps (11 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 121 bps (11 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 105 bps (11 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-07-30-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1785394801}