{"id":127,"slug":"2026-08-25-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-08-25","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-08-25","headline":"The median xStocks reserve on kamino can exit only 25% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 14.1% of $1.2M marked is exitable","SPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M marked is exitable","QQQx — 25% of $3.0M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 25% of $2.8M marked is exitable","AAPLx — 31.4% of $391k marked is exitable","HOODx — 39.2% of $383k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $550k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $151k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $13.9M marked, n=1370), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=1370). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: cbBTC (3/1370 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":13700,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":13700,"medianExitablePct":25,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":4.7,"markedUsd":2977364},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":12.5,"markedUsd":2813502},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":14.1,"markedUsd":1248812},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":15.6,"markedUsd":4132959},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":3022168},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":2823787},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":31.4,"markedUsd":390730},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":39.2,"markedUsd":383270},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":550376},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":3,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":151349}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":2740,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":1370,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":260,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":13934055},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":1370,"noExitSweeps":1370,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":260,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4419414}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":1370,"rowsAllMarkets":16440},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-08-25:\n\nGOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M exitable\nTSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M exitable\nMSTRx — 14.1% of $1.2M exitable\nSPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M exitable\nQQQx — 25% of $3.0M exitable\nNVDAx — 25% of $2.8M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 25% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-08-25-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1787641201}