{"id":130,"slug":"2026-08-25-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-08-25","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-08-25","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 64 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 92 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 55 bps, 95th pct 92 bps (11 symbols, 3630 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 34 bps, 95th pct 76 bps (11 symbols, 6336 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 57 bps, 95th pct 72 bps (11 symbols, 5280 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 38 bps, 95th pct 71 bps (11 symbols, 2640 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 64 bps (11 symbols, 4290 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSTRx (1066 bps during premarket); COINx (310 bps during weekend); CRCLx (48657351 bps during overnight); MSTRx (357 bps during afterhours); CRCLx (201 bps during open).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":22176,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":11,"ticks":3630,"typical_p95_bps":91.7,"typical_median_bps":55.3,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":330,"p95_bps":1066.095,"median_bps":88.6}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":11,"ticks":6336,"typical_p95_bps":75.6,"typical_median_bps":33.95,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":576,"p95_bps":310.325,"median_bps":78.6}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":11,"ticks":5280,"typical_p95_bps":72.01499999999999,"typical_median_bps":56.9,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":48657350.94499996,"median_bps":173.9}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":11,"ticks":2640,"typical_p95_bps":71.41,"typical_median_bps":37.7,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":240,"p95_bps":356.68999999999994,"median_bps":49.9}},{"session":"open","symbols":11,"ticks":4290,"typical_p95_bps":63.654999999999816,"typical_median_bps":22.65,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":390,"p95_bps":200.60999999999854,"median_bps":13.75}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-08-25:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 92 bps (11 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 76 bps (11 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 72 bps (11 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 71 bps (11 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-08-25-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1787641201}