{"id":132,"slug":"2026-08-26-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-08-26","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-08-26","headline":"The median xStocks reserve on kamino can exit only 25% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 14.1% of $1.3M marked is exitable","SPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M marked is exitable","QQQx — 25% of $3.0M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 25% of $2.7M marked is exitable","AAPLx — 28.3% of $389k marked is exitable","HOODx — 37.7% of $384k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $553k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $152k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $13.9M marked, n=1466), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=1466). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: cbBTC (3/1466 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":14660,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":14660,"medianExitablePct":25,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":4.7,"markedUsd":2979063},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":12.5,"markedUsd":2813221},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":14.1,"markedUsd":1254018},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":15.6,"markedUsd":4115202},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":2985914},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":2738403},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":28.3,"markedUsd":388589},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":37.7,"markedUsd":383645},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":552778},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":3,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":151775}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":2932,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":1466,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":286,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":13934055},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":1466,"noExitSweeps":1466,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":286,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4419475}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":1466,"rowsAllMarkets":17592},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-08-26:\n\nGOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M exitable\nTSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M exitable\nMSTRx — 14.1% of $1.3M exitable\nSPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M exitable\nQQQx — 25% of $3.0M exitable\nNVDAx — 25% of $2.7M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 25% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-08-26-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1787727601}