Collateral exit overhang — 2026-08-29

Detail

• GOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M marked is exitable
• TSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M marked is exitable
• MSTRx — 14.1% of $1.5M marked is exitable
• SPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M marked is exitable
• NVDAx — 23.5% of $2.7M marked is exitable
• QQQx — 25% of $3.0M marked is exitable
• AAPLx — 31.4% of $390k marked is exitable
• HOODx — 36.1% of $388k marked is exitable
• CRCLx — 100% of $558k marked is exitable
• cbBTC — 100% of $167k marked is exitable
• Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $15.6M marked, n=1754), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=1754). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.
• Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: cbBTC (3/1754 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.
• Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.
• Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.
• Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.
• Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable.

Data

Machine-readable: 2026-08-29-collateral-exit-overhang.json

Method note: figures are computed from a live database at publication time and never revised afterwards. If a later measurement disagrees, both stay published.