{"id":157,"slug":"2026-08-31-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-08-31","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-08-31","headline":"The median xStocks reserve on kamino can exit only 23.6% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 14.1% of $1.6M marked is exitable","SPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 23.5% of $2.7M marked is exitable","HOODx — 23.6% of $397k marked is exitable","QQQx — 25% of $2.9M marked is exitable","AAPLx — 33% of $399k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $570k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $176k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $15.8M marked, n=1946), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=1946). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: CRCLx (1/1946 sweeps), cbBTC (3/1946 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":19460,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":19460,"medianExitablePct":23.6,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":4.7,"markedUsd":2966094},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":12.5,"markedUsd":2797666},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":14.1,"markedUsd":1585365},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":15.6,"markedUsd":4080785},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"markedUsd":2678928},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.6,"markedUsd":397480},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":2945031},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":33,"markedUsd":398504},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":1,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":570453},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":3,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":176081}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":3892,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":1946,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":364,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":15814125},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":1946,"noExitSweeps":1946,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":364,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4422538}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":1946,"rowsAllMarkets":23352},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-08-31:\n\nGOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M exitable\nTSLAx — 12.5% of $2.8M exitable\nMSTRx — 14.1% of $1.6M exitable\nSPYx — 15.6% of $4.1M exitable\nNVDAx — 23.5% of $2.7M exitable\nHOODx — 23.6% of $397k exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 23.6% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-08-31-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1788159601}