{"id":182,"slug":"2026-09-05-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-09-05","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-09-05","headline":"The median reserve on xStocks, kamino, can exit only 23.5% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 14.1% of $2.8M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 14.1% of $1.7M marked is exitable","SPYx — 17.2% of $4.1M marked is exitable","QQQx — 23.5% of $2.9M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 23.5% of $2.6M marked is exitable","HOODx — 23.5% of $473k marked is exitable","AAPLx — 33% of $400k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $597k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $186k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $16.2M marked, n=2428), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=2428). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: CRCLx (1/2426 sweeps), cbBTC (4/2428 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":24274,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":24274,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":4.7,"markedUsd":2956879},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":14.1,"markedUsd":2795444},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":2424,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":14.1,"markedUsd":1688244},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":17.2,"markedUsd":4055575},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"markedUsd":2928455},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"markedUsd":2605145},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"markedUsd":473288},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":33,"markedUsd":400110},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":2426,"noExitSweeps":1,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":596829},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":4,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":2,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":185623}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":4856,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":2428,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":494,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":16208592},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":2428,"noExitSweeps":2428,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":494,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4425776}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":2428,"rowsAllMarkets":29130},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-09-05:\n\nGOOGLx — 4.7% of $3.0M exitable\nTSLAx — 14.1% of $2.8M exitable\nMSTRx — 14.1% of $1.7M exitable\nSPYx — 17.2% of $4.1M exitable\nQQQx — 23.5% of $2.9M exitable\nNVDAx — 23.5% of $2.6M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 23.5% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-05-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1788591602}