{"id":245,"slug":"2026-09-17-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-17","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-17","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 49 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 174 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 50 bps, 95th pct 174 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 39 bps, 95th pct 118 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 30 bps, 95th pct 113 bps (12 symbols, 5784 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 27 bps, 95th pct 61 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 49 bps (12 symbols, 4704 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (536 bps during premarket); CRCLx (460 bps during overnight); CRCLx (225 bps during afterhours).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24240,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":174.3200000000001,"typical_median_bps":50.175,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":535.5,"median_bps":106.80000000000001}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":117.67500000000001,"typical_median_bps":39.45,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":221.4,"median_bps":57.2}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5784,"typical_p95_bps":113.2,"typical_median_bps":29.6,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":482,"p95_bps":459.535,"median_bps":114}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":60.642499999999984,"typical_median_bps":26.625,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":224.7,"median_bps":49.45}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4704,"typical_p95_bps":49.317499999999995,"typical_median_bps":22.5,"widest":{"symbol":"SPYx","n":392,"p95_bps":108.71499999999988,"median_bps":60.05}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-17:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 174 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 118 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 113 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 61 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-17-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1789628402}