{"id":270,"slug":"2026-09-22-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-22","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-22","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 49 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 158 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 79 bps, 95th pct 158 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 60 bps, 95th pct 116 bps (12 symbols, 5772 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 39 bps, 95th pct 92 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 27 bps, 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 21 bps, 95th pct 49 bps (12 symbols, 4704 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSTRx (651 bps during premarket); MSTRx (315 bps during weekend); CRCLx (182 bps during afterhours).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24228,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":158.16000000000003,"typical_median_bps":79.30000000000001,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":330,"p95_bps":650.545,"median_bps":304.7}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5772,"typical_p95_bps":115.85,"typical_median_bps":59.9,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":481,"p95_bps":327.1,"median_bps":114.7}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":92.0375,"typical_median_bps":38.6,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":314.5,"median_bps":143.89999999999998}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":60.29999999999998,"typical_median_bps":26.675,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":181.95499999999998,"median_bps":45.5}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4704,"typical_p95_bps":49.317499999999995,"typical_median_bps":20.924999999999997,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":392,"p95_bps":92.1,"median_bps":46.3}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-22:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 158 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 116 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 92 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-22-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790060401}