{"id":275,"slug":"2026-09-23-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-23","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-23","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 50 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 164 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 80 bps, 95th pct 164 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 61 bps, 95th pct 116 bps (12 symbols, 5772 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 39 bps, 95th pct 92 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 32 bps, 95th pct 68 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 21 bps, 95th pct 50 bps (12 symbols, 4692 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSTRx (651 bps during premarket); MSTRx (315 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24216,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":163.7675,"typical_median_bps":79.6,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":330,"p95_bps":650.545,"median_bps":205.1}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5772,"typical_p95_bps":115.85,"typical_median_bps":61.15,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":481,"p95_bps":315.4,"median_bps":83.9}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":92.0375,"typical_median_bps":38.6,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":314.5,"median_bps":143.89999999999998}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":68.08999999999997,"typical_median_bps":31.650000000000002,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":118.11999999999996,"median_bps":35.95}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4692,"typical_p95_bps":49.95,"typical_median_bps":20.55,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":391,"p95_bps":92.25,"median_bps":42.5}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-23:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 164 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 116 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 92 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 68 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-23-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790146802}