{"id":285,"slug":"2026-09-25-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-25","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-25","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 52 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 152 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 61 bps, 95th pct 152 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 44 bps, 95th pct 105 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 39 bps, 95th pct 92 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 34 bps, 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 22 bps, 95th pct 52 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSTRx (651 bps during premarket); CRCLx (315 bps during overnight); MSTRx (315 bps during weekend); CRCLx (206 bps during afterhours).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":152.33749999999998,"typical_median_bps":60.849999999999994,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":330,"p95_bps":650.545,"median_bps":158.8}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":104.955,"typical_median_bps":44.275,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":315.4,"median_bps":63.85}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":92.0375,"typical_median_bps":38.6,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":314.5,"median_bps":143.89999999999998}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":60.1575,"typical_median_bps":33.675,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":205.60999999999996,"median_bps":41.4}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":51.72499999999998,"typical_median_bps":22.049999999999997,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":92.31,"median_bps":35.6}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-25:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 152 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 105 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 92 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-25-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790319602}