{"id":297,"slug":"2026-09-28-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-09-28","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-09-28","headline":"The median reserve on xStocks, kamino, can exit only 23.5% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 4.7% of $2.9M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 9.4% of $3.8M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 15.7% of $2.8M marked is exitable","SPYx — 20.3% of $4.1M marked is exitable","QQQx — 23.5% of $2.9M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 23.5% of $2.6M marked is exitable","HOODx — 40.8% of $604k marked is exitable","AAPLx — 43.9% of $455k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $811k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $288k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $19.8M marked, n=4564), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=4631). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: CRCLx (6/4619 sweeps), cbBTC (4/4631 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":46294,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":46294,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":4.7,"markedUsd":2879469},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":4627,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":9.4,"markedUsd":3794195},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":15.7,"markedUsd":2776339},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":20.3,"markedUsd":4076865},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"markedUsd":2865156},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":23.5,"markedUsd":2554153},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":40.8,"markedUsd":603681},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":43.9,"markedUsd":454725},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":4619,"noExitSweeps":6,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":810903},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":4,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":2,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":288373}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":9195,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":4564,"noExitSweeps":4564,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":858,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":19775461},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":4631,"noExitSweeps":4631,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":881,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4417511}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":4631,"rowsAllMarkets":55489},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-09-28:\n\nGOOGLx — 4.7% of $2.9M exitable\nMSTRx — 9.4% of $3.8M exitable\nTSLAx — 15.7% of $2.8M exitable\nSPYx — 20.3% of $4.1M exitable\nQQQx — 23.5% of $2.9M exitable\nNVDAx — 23.5% of $2.6M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 23.5% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-28-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1790578802}