{"id":300,"slug":"2026-09-28-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-28","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-28","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 53 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 146 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 58 bps, 95th pct 146 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 40 bps, 95th pct 90 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 32 bps, 95th pct 63 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 24 bps, 95th pct 53 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 36 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSTRx (651 bps during premarket); CRCLx (316 bps during overnight); CRCLx (234 bps during afterhours); MSTRx (216 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":145.6875,"typical_median_bps":57.775000000000006,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":330,"p95_bps":650.545,"median_bps":118.8}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":90.1575,"typical_median_bps":39.8,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":315.6099999999998,"median_bps":112.95}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":63.27749999999999,"typical_median_bps":31.824999999999996,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":233.6149999999999,"median_bps":53.9}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":53.08749999999999,"typical_median_bps":24.45,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":89.50499999999995,"median_bps":35.1}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":35.95,"typical_median_bps":23.4,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":215.7,"median_bps":93.6}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-28:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 146 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 90 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 63 bps (12 symbols)\nopen — typical 95th pct 53 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-28-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790578802}