{"id":305,"slug":"2026-09-29-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-29","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-29","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 55 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 120 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 55 bps, 95th pct 120 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 38 bps, 95th pct 87 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 35 bps, 95th pct 61 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 27 bps, 95th pct 55 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 36 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (286 bps during overnight); CRCLx (234 bps during afterhours); MSTRx (216 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":120.0975,"typical_median_bps":54.5,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":358.35,"median_bps":63.05}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":87.30749999999999,"typical_median_bps":37.875,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":286.2149999999999,"median_bps":66.15}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":60.650000000000006,"typical_median_bps":35.074999999999996,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":233.6149999999999,"median_bps":53.8}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":55.12249999999996,"typical_median_bps":26.95,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":90.32999999999997,"median_bps":36.75}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":35.95,"typical_median_bps":23.4,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":215.7,"median_bps":93.6}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-29:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 120 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 87 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 61 bps (12 symbols)\nopen — typical 95th pct 55 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-29-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790665201}