{"id":310,"slug":"2026-09-30-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-09-30","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-09-30","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 54 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 120 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 55 bps, 95th pct 120 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 34 bps, 95th pct 76 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 31 bps, 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 27 bps, 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 36 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (270 bps during overnight); CRCLx (234 bps during afterhours); MSTRx (216 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":120.0975,"typical_median_bps":55.075,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":344.2800000000001,"median_bps":81.19999999999999}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":76.3,"typical_median_bps":33.625,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":270.4,"median_bps":52.05}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":60.01499999999987,"typical_median_bps":30.924999999999997,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":233.6149999999999,"median_bps":53.8}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":54.18249999999999,"typical_median_bps":27.225,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":89.23999999999995,"median_bps":38.45}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":35.95,"typical_median_bps":23.4,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":215.7,"median_bps":93.6}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-09-30:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 120 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 76 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols)\nopen — typical 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-09-30-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790751602}