{"id":320,"slug":"2026-10-02-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-02","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-02","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 55 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 117 bps during overnight.","bullets":["overnight: typical symbol median 47 bps, 95th pct 117 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","premarket: typical symbol median 53 bps, 95th pct 115 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 29 bps, 95th pct 55 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 28 bps, 95th pct 51 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 36 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (230 bps during afterhours); MSTRx (216 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":117.21749999999994,"typical_median_bps":46.5,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":270.6249999999998,"median_bps":70.9}},{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":115.05,"typical_median_bps":52.574999999999996,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":344.2800000000001,"median_bps":82.6}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":54.582499999999996,"typical_median_bps":28.95,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":87.41,"median_bps":42.25}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":50.797499999999985,"typical_median_bps":27.95,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":229.95499999999998,"median_bps":24.5}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":35.95,"typical_median_bps":23.4,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":215.7,"median_bps":93.6}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-02:\n\novernight — typical 95th pct 117 bps (12 symbols)\npremarket — typical 95th pct 115 bps (12 symbols)\nopen — typical 95th pct 55 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 51 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-02-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1790924401}