{"id":335,"slug":"2026-10-05-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-05","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-05","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 54 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 124 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 58 bps, 95th pct 124 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 48 bps, 95th pct 104 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 42 bps, 95th pct 63 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 30 bps, 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 25 bps, 95th pct 51 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: MSTRx (318 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":123.75,"typical_median_bps":57.625,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":350.67,"median_bps":139.6}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":103.5424999999999,"typical_median_bps":48.150000000000006,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":480,"p95_bps":268.6899999999998,"median_bps":98.3}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":62.6375,"typical_median_bps":41.5,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":317.6,"median_bps":190.5}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":53.84249999999999,"typical_median_bps":30.200000000000003,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":91.1549999999999,"median_bps":46.3}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":50.797499999999985,"typical_median_bps":25.375,"widest":{"symbol":"MSFTx","n":240,"p95_bps":89.18999999999997,"median_bps":63.4}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-05:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 124 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 104 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 63 bps (12 symbols)\nopen — typical 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-05-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1791183602}