{"id":352,"slug":"2026-10-09-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-10-09","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-10-09","headline":"The median reserve on xStocks, kamino, can exit only 25% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 6.3% of $2.9M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 11% of $3.9M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M marked is exitable","QQQx — 21.9% of $2.9M marked is exitable","SPYx — 25% of $4.1M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 25% of $2.6M marked is exitable","HOODx — 43.9% of $626k marked is exitable","AAPLx — 48.6% of $453k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $851k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $317k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $20.1M marked, n=5616), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=5528). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: CRCLx (6/5672 sweeps), cbBTC (4/5683 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":56822,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":56822,"medianExitablePct":25,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":5684,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":6.3,"markedUsd":2937376},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":5680,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":11,"markedUsd":3884703},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":5684,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":17.2,"markedUsd":2777707},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":5684,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":21.9,"markedUsd":2911016},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":5684,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":4103635},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":5684,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":2595480},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":5683,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":43.9,"markedUsd":625757},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":5684,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":48.6,"markedUsd":453441},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":5672,"noExitSweeps":6,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":851413},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":5683,"noExitSweeps":4,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":2,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":317056}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":11144,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":5616,"noExitSweeps":5616,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1089,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":20059514},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":5528,"noExitSweeps":5528,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1071,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4416289}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":5684,"rowsAllMarkets":67966},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-10-09:\n\nGOOGLx — 6.3% of $2.9M exitable\nMSTRx — 11% of $3.9M exitable\nTSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M exitable\nQQQx — 21.9% of $2.9M exitable\nSPYx — 25% of $4.1M exitable\nNVDAx — 25% of $2.6M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 25% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-09-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1791529202}