{"id":355,"slug":"2026-10-09-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-09","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-09","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 51 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 104 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 59 bps, 95th pct 104 bps (12 symbols, 3972 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 41 bps, 95th pct 74 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 42 bps, 95th pct 63 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 32 bps, 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 23 bps, 95th pct 51 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (379 bps during premarket); MSTRx (264 bps during overnight); MSTRx (318 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24204,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3972,"typical_p95_bps":104.25,"typical_median_bps":59.349999999999994,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":331,"p95_bps":378.5,"median_bps":225.8}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":73.85,"typical_median_bps":40.75,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":480,"p95_bps":264.2,"median_bps":86.65}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":62.6375,"typical_median_bps":41.5,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":317.6,"median_bps":190.5}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":54.2,"typical_median_bps":32.475,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":240,"p95_bps":91,"median_bps":31.6}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":50.777499999999996,"typical_median_bps":22.8,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":92.61,"median_bps":47.1}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-09:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 104 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 74 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 63 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-09-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1791529202}