{"id":367,"slug":"2026-10-12-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-10-12","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-10-12","headline":"The median reserve on xStocks, kamino, can exit only 25.8% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 6.3% of $3.0M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 11% of $3.9M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M marked is exitable","QQQx — 21.9% of $2.9M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 25% of $2.6M marked is exitable","SPYx — 26.6% of $4.1M marked is exitable","HOODx — 45.4% of $623k marked is exitable","AAPLx — 50.1% of $455k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $859k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $320k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $20.7M marked, n=5898), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=5528). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: CRCLx (6/5951 sweeps), cbBTC (4/5960 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":59610,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":59610,"medianExitablePct":25.8,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":5965,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":6.3,"markedUsd":2952763},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":5956,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":11,"markedUsd":3936936},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":5961,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":17.2,"markedUsd":2780593},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":5967,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":21.9,"markedUsd":2927990},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":5961,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":25,"markedUsd":2585549},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":5968,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"markedUsd":4132800},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":5958,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":45.4,"markedUsd":622904},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":5963,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":50.1,"markedUsd":454531},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":5951,"noExitSweeps":6,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":859264},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":5960,"noExitSweeps":4,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":2,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":319685}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":11426,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":5898,"noExitSweeps":5898,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1115,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":20659279},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":5528,"noExitSweeps":5528,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1071,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4416289}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":5968,"rowsAllMarkets":71036},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-10-12:\n\nGOOGLx — 6.3% of $3.0M exitable\nMSTRx — 11% of $3.9M exitable\nTSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M exitable\nQQQx — 21.9% of $2.9M exitable\nNVDAx — 25% of $2.6M exitable\nSPYx — 26.6% of $4.1M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 25.8% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-12-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1791788402}