{"id":380,"slug":"2026-10-14-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-14","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-14","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 52 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 175 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 60 bps, 95th pct 175 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 40 bps, 95th pct 95 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 42 bps, 95th pct 67 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 24 bps, 95th pct 52 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 31 bps, 95th pct 50 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (239 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":174.9675,"typical_median_bps":59.525000000000006,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":330,"p95_bps":378.56,"median_bps":152}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":94.5,"typical_median_bps":39.800000000000004,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":272.74999999999994,"median_bps":85.94999999999999}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":66.6,"typical_median_bps":42.1,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":576,"p95_bps":238.7,"median_bps":148.5}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":51.80999999999999,"typical_median_bps":24.275,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":86.31,"median_bps":40.6}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":50.150000000000006,"typical_median_bps":30.85,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":240,"p95_bps":92.6749999999995,"median_bps":29.2}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-14:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 175 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 95 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 67 bps (12 symbols)\nopen — typical 95th pct 52 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-14-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1791961202}