{"id":390,"slug":"2026-10-16-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-16","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-16","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 54 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 186 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 73 bps, 95th pct 186 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 53 bps, 95th pct 137 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 29 bps, 95th pct 86 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 42 bps, 95th pct 67 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 28 bps, 95th pct 54 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (280 bps during afterhours); CRCLx (239 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":186.3875,"typical_median_bps":73.07499999999999,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":330,"p95_bps":272.1,"median_bps":112.4}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":137.3075,"typical_median_bps":53.225,"widest":{"symbol":"TSLAx","n":480,"p95_bps":358.1249999999999,"median_bps":71}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":85.94999999999999,"typical_median_bps":29.475,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":279.635,"median_bps":28.7}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":66.6,"typical_median_bps":42.1,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":576,"p95_bps":238.7,"median_bps":148.5}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":53.555,"typical_median_bps":27.725,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":86.72999999999998,"median_bps":47.3}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-16:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 186 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 137 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 86 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 67 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-16-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1792134002}