{"id":400,"slug":"2026-10-18-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-18","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-18","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 53 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 168 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 67 bps, 95th pct 168 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 49 bps, 95th pct 140 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 31 bps, 95th pct 82 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 42 bps, 95th pct 75 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 30 bps, 95th pct 53 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (280 bps during afterhours); CRCLx (239 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":168.03500000000003,"typical_median_bps":67.225,"widest":{"symbol":"TSLAx","n":330,"p95_bps":446.51,"median_bps":69}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":139.98999999999995,"typical_median_bps":49.3,"widest":{"symbol":"TSLAx","n":480,"p95_bps":387.25499999999994,"median_bps":71}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":81.89999999999998,"typical_median_bps":31.25,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":279.635,"median_bps":31.1}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":75.44999999999999,"typical_median_bps":42,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":576,"p95_bps":238.7,"median_bps":57.8}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":53.43249999999999,"typical_median_bps":30.025,"widest":{"symbol":"SPYx","n":390,"p95_bps":123.63999999999987,"median_bps":60.6}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-18:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 168 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 140 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 82 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 75 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-18-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1792306801}