{"id":415,"slug":"2026-10-21-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-21","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-21","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 52 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 159 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 61 bps, 95th pct 159 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 53 bps, 95th pct 149 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 35 bps, 95th pct 115 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 34 bps, 95th pct 77 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 33 bps, 95th pct 52 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: CRCLx (263 bps during afterhours).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":158.6,"typical_median_bps":61.425,"widest":{"symbol":"TSLAx","n":330,"p95_bps":446.355,"median_bps":41.45}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":149.21999999999997,"typical_median_bps":53.400000000000006,"widest":{"symbol":"TSLAx","n":480,"p95_bps":353.155,"median_bps":126.1}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":115.15,"typical_median_bps":34.9,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":576,"p95_bps":222.275,"median_bps":36.5}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":77.2575,"typical_median_bps":33.8,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":240,"p95_bps":262.76,"median_bps":41.05}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":52.004999999999995,"typical_median_bps":33.425000000000004,"widest":{"symbol":"SPYx","n":390,"p95_bps":123.63999999999987,"median_bps":59.95}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-21:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 159 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 149 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 115 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 77 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-21-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1792566002}