{"id":432,"slug":"2026-10-25-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-10-25","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-10-25","headline":"The median reserve on xStocks, kamino, can exit only 26.6% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 7.8% of $3.0M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 11% of $4.0M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M marked is exitable","QQQx — 21.9% of $3.0M marked is exitable","SPYx — 26.6% of $4.2M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 26.6% of $2.5M marked is exitable","HOODx — 43.8% of $604k marked is exitable","AAPLx — 50.1% of $452k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $868k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $335k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $20.7M marked, n=6435), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=5528). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: MSTRx (13/6800 sweeps), CRCLx (6/6793 sweeps), cbBTC (4/6810 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":68108,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":68108,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":6815,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":7.8,"markedUsd":2968129},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":6800,"noExitSweeps":13,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":11,"markedUsd":4001321},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":6814,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":17.2,"markedUsd":2785009},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":6821,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":21.9,"markedUsd":2967377},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":6822,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"markedUsd":4201352},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":6813,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"markedUsd":2540263},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":6806,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":43.8,"markedUsd":603681},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":6814,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":50.1,"markedUsd":452430},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":6793,"noExitSweeps":6,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":867809},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":6810,"noExitSweeps":4,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":2,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":335134}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["MSTRx","CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":11963,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":6435,"noExitSweeps":6435,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1251,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":20690781},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":5528,"noExitSweeps":5528,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1071,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4416289}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":6824,"rowsAllMarkets":80071},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-10-25:\n\nGOOGLx — 7.8% of $3.0M exitable\nMSTRx — 11% of $4.0M exitable\nTSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M exitable\nQQQx — 21.9% of $3.0M exitable\nSPYx — 26.6% of $4.2M exitable\nNVDAx — 26.6% of $2.5M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 26.6% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-25-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1792911601}