{"id":445,"slug":"2026-10-27-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-27","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-27","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 50 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 207 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 46 bps, 95th pct 207 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 56 bps, 95th pct 174 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 31 bps, 95th pct 76 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 24 bps, 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 33 bps, 95th pct 50 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: METAx (733 bps during premarket); METAx (358 bps during afterhours); MSTRx (322 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":206.7775,"typical_median_bps":46.25,"widest":{"symbol":"METAx","n":330,"p95_bps":732.8,"median_bps":29}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":174.3,"typical_median_bps":56.4,"widest":{"symbol":"METAx","n":480,"p95_bps":491.6,"median_bps":70}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":76.25,"typical_median_bps":31.299999999999997,"widest":{"symbol":"METAx","n":240,"p95_bps":358.1549999999998,"median_bps":27.8}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":59.75,"typical_median_bps":24.15,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":321.975,"median_bps":104.8}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":50.06499999999999,"typical_median_bps":32.65,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":86.255,"median_bps":41.95}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-27:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 207 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 174 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 76 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-27-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1793084402}