{"id":462,"slug":"2026-10-31-collateral-exit-overhang","day":"2026-10-31","project":"overhang","title":"Collateral exit overhang — 2026-10-31","headline":"The median reserve on xStocks, kamino, can exit only 26.6% of its marked value, measured across 10 symbols.","bullets":["GOOGLx — 7.8% of $3.0M marked is exitable","MSTRx — 11% of $4.0M marked is exitable","TSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M marked is exitable","QQQx — 21.9% of $3.0M marked is exitable","SPYx — 26.6% of $4.2M marked is exitable","NVDAx — 26.6% of $2.5M marked is exitable","HOODx — 42.3% of $599k marked is exitable","AAPLx — 50.1% of $450k marked is exitable","CRCLx — 100% of $886k marked is exitable","cbBTC — 100% of $342k marked is exitable","Separate market, separate mechanism — Superstate Opening Bell: all 2 reserves measured never routed at any size. FWDI (0% of $20.8M marked, n=6602), USCC (0% of $4.4M marked, n=5528). These do not route because their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector.","Not counted as no-exit because the failure was intermittent: GOOGLx (35/7130 sweeps), MSTRx (23/7113 sweeps), HOODx (53/7114 sweeps), CRCLx (15/7106 sweeps), cbBTC (4/7129 sweeps) — a symbol must fail in every sweep before its market is called absent.","Those no-exit readings include sweeps taken while the US market was open, so the absence is not an off-hours artifact.","Every percentile is computed per symbol first, then taken as the median across the 10 symbols on xStocks alone — nothing is pooled across symbols and nothing is pooled across markets.","Only a structural exhaustion of the sell ladder counts as no exit. Each sweep carries a SOL control quote; sweeps whose control did not route, or was flagged transient, are excluded as unmeasured rather than reported as an absent market.","Readings before 2026-08-11 are excluded in the query: they were computed against a frozen mark and are not comparable."],"sample_n":71271,"payload":{"headlineMarket":{"market":"xStocks Market","protocol":"kamino","symbols":10,"rows":71271,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"GOOGLx","sweeps":7130,"noExitSweeps":35,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":7.8,"markedUsd":2980053},{"symbol":"MSTRx","sweeps":7113,"noExitSweeps":23,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":11,"markedUsd":4019756},{"symbol":"TSLAx","sweeps":7133,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":17.2,"markedUsd":2788625},{"symbol":"QQQx","sweeps":7140,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":21.9,"markedUsd":2972510},{"symbol":"SPYx","sweeps":7141,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"markedUsd":4201879},{"symbol":"NVDAx","sweeps":7132,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":26.6,"markedUsd":2535550},{"symbol":"HOODx","sweeps":7114,"noExitSweeps":53,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":42.3,"markedUsd":599027},{"symbol":"AAPLx","sweeps":7133,"noExitSweeps":0,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":0,"medianExitablePct":50.1,"markedUsd":450173},{"symbol":"CRCLx","sweeps":7106,"noExitSweeps":15,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":1,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":885825},{"symbol":"cbBTC","sweeps":7129,"noExitSweeps":4,"noExit":false,"openSweeps":2,"medianExitablePct":100,"markedUsd":341808}],"noExit":[],"intermittent":["GOOGLx","MSTRx","HOODx","CRCLx","cbBTC"],"outliers":[]},"otherMarkets":[{"market":"Superstate Opening Bell Market","symbols":2,"rows":12130,"medianExitablePct":0,"noExit":["FWDI","USCC"],"perSymbol":[{"symbol":"FWDI","sweeps":6602,"noExitSweeps":6602,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1306,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":20848574},{"symbol":"USCC","sweeps":5528,"noExitSweeps":5528,"noExit":true,"openSweeps":1071,"medianExitablePct":0,"markedUsd":4416289}],"mechanism":"their tokens are transfer-permissioned: Kamino's liquidate instruction is permissionless, so a liquidator must already be an allowlisted wallet to receive the seized collateral. That is a permissioning constraint, not a thin book — stated here as the mechanism, not measured by this collector","mechanism_is_measured":false}],"floorTs":1786406400,"floorDay":"2026-08-11","minSweeps":30,"sweepsMeasured":7143,"rowsAllMarkets":83401},"x_text":"Collateral exit overhang, xStocks on kamino, 2026-10-31:\n\nGOOGLx — 7.8% of $3.0M exitable\nMSTRx — 11% of $4.0M exitable\nTSLAx — 17.2% of $2.8M exitable\nQQQx — 21.9% of $3.0M exitable\nSPYx — 26.6% of $4.2M exitable\nNVDAx — 26.6% of $2.5M exitable\n\nMedian across 10 symbols: 26.6% of marked value is exitable.\nSuperstate Opening Bell is a separate market: FWDI, USCC never route — transfer-permissioned tokens, not a thin book.\nStructural failures only. Control-failed sweeps excluded, never counted as an absent market.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-31-collateral-exit-overhang","created_ts":1793430001}