{"id":465,"slug":"2026-10-31-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","day":"2026-10-31","project":"pegwatch","title":"Tokenized stock peg quality by market session — week to 2026-10-31","headline":"The typical tokenized stock holds within 60 bps of its underlying while the US market is open, widening to 156 bps during premarket.","bullets":["premarket: typical symbol median 49 bps, 95th pct 156 bps (12 symbols, 3960 ticks)","overnight: typical symbol median 51 bps, 95th pct 104 bps (12 symbols, 5760 ticks)","afterhours: typical symbol median 42 bps, 95th pct 81 bps (12 symbols, 2880 ticks)","weekend: typical symbol median 24 bps, 95th pct 80 bps (12 symbols, 6912 ticks)","open: typical symbol median 34 bps, 95th pct 60 bps (12 symbols, 4680 ticks)","Figures are per-symbol percentiles aggregated across symbols, so one wide name cannot set the headline.","Outliers excluded from the typical figure: COINx (571 bps during premarket); CRCLx (48946400 bps during overnight); COINx (426 bps during afterhours); MSTRx (322 bps during weekend).","Measured every 5 minutes against the real underlying trade price, not a quote midpoint."],"sample_n":24192,"payload":{"sessions":[{"session":"premarket","symbols":12,"ticks":3960,"typical_p95_bps":156.44750000000002,"typical_median_bps":49.324999999999996,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":330,"p95_bps":571.1,"median_bps":142.8}},{"session":"overnight","symbols":12,"ticks":5760,"typical_p95_bps":104.01999999999998,"typical_median_bps":50.75,"widest":{"symbol":"CRCLx","n":480,"p95_bps":48946399.7,"median_bps":96.7}},{"session":"afterhours","symbols":12,"ticks":2880,"typical_p95_bps":80.51249999999999,"typical_median_bps":41.900000000000006,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":240,"p95_bps":426,"median_bps":72.6}},{"session":"weekend","symbols":12,"ticks":6912,"typical_p95_bps":80.4125,"typical_median_bps":24.15,"widest":{"symbol":"MSTRx","n":576,"p95_bps":321.975,"median_bps":110.4}},{"session":"open","symbols":12,"ticks":4680,"typical_p95_bps":60.27499999999998,"typical_median_bps":33.525,"widest":{"symbol":"COINx","n":390,"p95_bps":85.91,"median_bps":39.75}}],"method":"per-symbol percentile, median across symbols"},"x_text":"Tokenized stock peg quality, week to 2026-10-31:\n\npremarket — typical 95th pct 156 bps (12 symbols)\novernight — typical 95th pct 104 bps (12 symbols)\nafterhours — typical 95th pct 81 bps (12 symbols)\nweekend — typical 95th pct 80 bps (12 symbols)\n\nArbitrage holds the peg while the market is open. It widens when it shuts.\nhttps://data.ochinimus.app/r/2026-10-31-tokenized-stock-peg-by-session","created_ts":1793430001}